EKITI GUBER RACE: ISSUES THAT MAY INFLUENCE VOTING

By: Jumoke Olasoji

July 14 is the Governorship Election in Ekiti State.
INEC has cleared 40 candidates for the election 
Vital Issues and contributing factors in the outcome of the election, myREPblog reports

As forty candidates (cleared by INEC) compete for the governor's seat of Ekiti State Government, The July 14th exercise no doubt, promises to be nothing less than intriguing.

Given the fact that Fayemi, the immediate Minister of Solid Minerals, is a former governor in the state and Olusola, backed by the sitting governor, Ayo Fayose, the participants notwithstanding, as confirmed by ongoing grassroots campaigns sources confirmed that the election will mostly be a straight fight between the candidates of All Progressives Congress (APC) and the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

But the suggestion that the two will likely be the frontrunners, according to our respondents, is not only because of the strength of the two parties they are flying their flags or even the offices they have held in the state but also because of other crucial factors poised to influence voting patterns at the election, including age-old rivalries of their sponsors who see this year’s election as a means of determining the real leaders of the state. There are also deeper calculations that have both regional and national implications.

For example, the political control of Ekiti, as the only PDP-controlled state in the Southwest zone, is very strategic for both PDP and the APC ahead 2019 General Elections. So, the two big parties are ready to do everything to defeat the other during this year’s governorship election. Ekiti State Governor, Ayo Fayose, for example, is evidently aware of the importance of retaining control of the state, both for his continued relevance in the PDP and his survival in the state as a politician. For Fayemi of APC, observers see his return to contest for Ekiti State’s governorship seat as a special assignment from APC, which is bent on recovering the former ACN state. Fayemi cannot afford to fail in this assignment, according some sources, who revealed that Ekiti has become very crucial in APC’s calculations ahead of 2019 Presidential Election.

Aside the battle of the political parties, the coming election can also be described, more strictly, as the battle of old rivals, former governor Fayemi and the outgoing governor, Ayo Fayose. Keen observers of Ekiti politics said the two political leaders have personal scores to settle once and for all. It would be recalled that Fayose, who served his first tenure as governor before losing to some hot intrigues, returned to snatch the governorship seat from Kayode, who was then only a first term governor. While it is considered that Fayemi is back to prove a point, Fayose, according to analysts, is determined to establish his influence as the political leader of the time. While it is argued that Fayose can make good his plans, using the powers of incumbency, still at his disposal, to install his deputy, others said Fayemi, who is in the race on the platform of APC, the party in power at the centre, will certainly not be an easy challenge for Fayose.

Outstanding disagreements over choice of candidate

Given that the two leading political parties and their candidates are undoubtedly influential, roundly established in the state and angry enough to fight like wounded Lions, it has become clear that other issues and factors would finally determine how the election would be won and lost.

One of the factors is the level of unity within the leading parties themselves. In the ruling PDP, it seems the way the Deputy Governor, Prof. Kolapo Olusola, emerged as the party’s governorship candidate remains an issue among party members and other very important stakeholders. It would be recalled that in the days before the ‘primary election,’ Governor Ayo Fayose made no pretenses to other party members interested in flying the party’s flag that his choice for a successor was Olusola.

As at then, other aspirants, like the Deputy Minority whip, Senator Biodun Olujimi; former National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Prince Dayo Adeyeye; Chief Adebisi Omoyeni; former Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Owoseeni Ajayi; and former Nigerian Ambassador to Canada, Chief Dare Bejide, expressed dislike for a process they described as undemocratic. But their cries notwithstanding, Olusola emerged the party’s candidate.

We gathered that unless Fayose truly reaches out to the aggrieved aspirants who lost out and their supporters, this may be an issue during the governorship election. A source close to the party in Ado Ekiti explained during the week that although the Gboyega Oguntuase-led PDP State Working Committee showed open support to Fayose’s choice, they were concerned that the open endorsement of the Deputy Governor may be taken as dictatorship on the part of the governor and the party. “This explains why, until the end, the party in the state continued to work towards conducting a proper primary election,” he said.

Encouraged by the impression that the party could be forced to allow a level playing ground, some members had gone further to appeal to the National Chairman of the party, Uche Secondus, to conduct free, fair and credible primaries. They argued then that it was only such a development that will help the party to fight the governorship election as a united family.

But reports showed that even if the party’s assurances then convinced majority of the members that there would be real contest during the primary election, many of the aspirants were not convinced. At a point, they called for the dissolution of Oguntuase – led State Working Committee.

In a joint communiqué, read out by one of them, Adeyeye, after one of their meetings, they had said: “We reject without reservation the adoption of Prof. Olusola as the sole candidate of the PDP for the July 14 governorship election.

“Governor Fayose has pitched his tent with Prof. Olusola and he should be disqualified from playing any role. The relevant provisions of the Electoral Act and the PDP constitution should be followed strictly, and arbitrary and illegal use of state apparatus like radio and television stations to subvert the truth must stop.”

As would be expected, Fayose was not intimidated by such protests. He said through his aides that he has the right, as a citizen, to support any aspirant. “What the governor did was in the exercise of his own right as a member of the party and as a Nigerian. He has exercised his fundamental rights, which he is entitled to. I want to assure other aspirants that his support for Prof. Kolapo Olusola has not precluded them from the primary or foreclosed the conduct of the primary. The primary will still hold and it is the delegates that will pick any of the aspirants as the candidate,” the aide said.

The case of APC is also interesting. Before the former Minister of Solid Mineral Development and former Governor, Kayode Fayemi, emerged APC’s candidate, there was fear of how the party will contain the burden of having many heavyweights interested in the party’s ticket.

At a point, prominent aspirants in the party associated with the ambition to fly the party’s flag included former governor, Chief Segun Oni, Special Adviser to President Muhammadu Buhari on Political Matters, Senator Babafemi Ojudu; former Chairman, Senate Committee on Privatisation, Senator Ayo Arise; Senator Gbenga Aluko; former member of the House of Representatives and former Commissioner for Information and Strategy in Lagos State, Opeyemi Bamidele and two other former members of the House of Representatives, Bimbo Daramola and Bamidele Faparusi, among others.

While it seemed that everyone accepted that Kayode has what it takes to confront Fayose-backed candidate, party members, alleged that Fayemi’s candidacy may have a minus if PDP succeeds in making zoning an issue.

Zoning and the scramble for large votes

So, it became obvious right from time that zoning may be an issue in the campaigns. Today, with the emergence of APC’s Fayose from Ekiti North Senatorial District and PDP’s Olusola from Ekiti South, observers are poised to see how far zoning would go in determining the result of the governorship election. But because the two leading candidates have claims to be favoured by the zoning factor, it it would be interesting to see who, between Fayemi and Olusola, will garner more votes on the basis of zoning consideration.

It would be recalled that even before the primaries, some stakeholders made it an issue notwithstanding the fact that zoning has hardly played decisive role in Ekiti State politics before now. Before the primaries, leading aspirants in APC were openly divided on the importance of zoning in the choice of the party’s candidate. In the ruling PDP, the issue assumed even greater importance as the outgoing governor, Fayose, insisted on the choice of his deputy, Prof. Olusola, from Ikere-Ekiti in Ekiti North, as his successor.

Aspirants, who openly demanded that the party should consider zoning while making its choice, argued that Fayose’s PDP may hope to make political profit by choosing a candidate from the North. Some APC stakeholders however dismissed this sentiment, arguing that Ekiti needs quality governor more than sheer zoning. Senator Femi Ojodu, for example, was one of the aspirants that dismissed zoning in the state. Hon. Bamidele Faparusi, another aspirant then, however thought otherwise: He openly warned that his party “would regret if it refuses to hearken to the agitations for the zoning of the governorship ticket to the south senatorial district.”

Describing opponents of zoning as “selfish politicians, who have no respect for the populace,” the aspirant said zoning to the South will satisfy people’s crave for “fairness, justice and fair-play among the three senatorial districts.”

He added: “The entire six local governments in the south have taken a position on this and that was why Governor Ayodele Fayose, who wanted to pick an Ado Ekiti person initially, quickly opted for his Deputy, Prof Kolapo Olusola, who is from Ikere in the south, so APC must do same.

“Governor Fayose was not a fool to have done that. He has done his opinion poll very well. So, I beg the APC state and National Working Committees that if they really love APC, they must support south agenda.”

Now that Fayemi is flying APC’s flag, the question the party supporters are asking is how to counter the zoning debate. It is observed that the party’s strategists are not taking chances as other issues are also being considered to ensure victory. One of such tactical moves is Fayemi’s decision to pick Alhaja Habibat Adubiaro as his running mate. Adubiaro, a former Commissioner for Women Affairs, who is the President of the Federation of Muslim Women Associations of Nigeria. (FOMWAN), was born in Ado-Ekiti.

Considering that PDP’s Olusola picked the immediate past Chairman of Ado Local Government, Kazeem Deji Ogunsakin, as his running mate, it seems both the APC and the PDP are ready to fight for votes from Ado Ekiti, which is considered as the most populated council with the largest votes in the state.

Between Fayose and Fayemi

The practical issues aside, it may be right to narrow the Ekiti governorship race to a battle between Fayose and Fayemi. Explaining how the rivalry between the two will determine the voting pattern, Dr. Tunde Babafemi, a political analyst told The Nation, “In a way, this battle is really a battle between the outgoing governor Fayose and the former governor, Fayemi. For them, the battle goes beyond mere ego; it is actually a battle for political survival. If Fayose losses this battle, it would be a pity, to say the least and if Fayemi losses, his case, as a political leader in Ekiti, will be closed. That explains the hysteria and the grand intrigues. For the electorates, what will count, I think, is how they perceive the performance index of the two men, who have had the opportunity to govern the state. For now, only few people are looking at Olusola as an individual. Most voters still equate PDP with Fayose and APC with Fayemi. So, the result will reflect how the people view these two politicians,” he said.